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Modification of a Numerical Method Using FIR Filters in a Time-dependent SIR Model for COVID-19

Pimentel, Felipe Rogério, Alves, Rafael Gustavo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Authors Yi-Cheng Chen, Ping-En Lu, Cheng-Shang Chang, and Tzu-Hsuan Liu use the Finite Impulse Response (FIR) linear system filtering method to track and predict the number of people infected and recovered from COVID-19, in a pandemic context in which there was still no vaccine and the only way to avoid contagion was isolation. To estimate the coefficients of these FIR filters, Chen et al. used machine learning methods through a classical optimization problem with regularization (ridge regression). These estimated coefficients are called ridge coefficients. The epidemic mathematical model adopted by these researchers to formulate the FIR filters is the time-dependent discrete SIR. In this paper, we propose a small modification to the algorithm of Chen et al. to obtain the ridge coefficients. We then used this modified algorithm to track and predict the number of people infected and recovered from COVID-19 in the state of Minas Gerais/Brazil, within a prediction window, during the initial period of the pandemic. We also compare the predicted data with the respective real data to check how good the approximation is. In the modified algorithm, we set values for the FIR filter orders and for the regularization parameters, both different from the respective values defined by Chen et al. in their algorithm. In this context, the numerical results obtained by the modified algorithm in some simulations present better approximation errors compared to the respective approximation errors presented by the algorithm of Chen et al.


Vision for Bosnia and Herzegovina in Artificial Intelligence Age: Global Trends, Potential Opportunities, Selected Use-cases and Realistic Goals

Ajanović, Zlatan, Aličković, Emina, Branković, Aida, Delalić, Sead, Kurtić, Eldar, Malikić, Salem, Mehonić, Adnan, Merzić, Hamza, Šehić, Kenan, Trbalić, Bahrudin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the most promising technologies of the 21. century, with an already noticeable impact on society and the economy. With this work, we provide a short overview of global trends, applications in industry and selected use-cases from our international experience and work in industry and academia. The goal is to present global and regional positive practices and provide an informed opinion on the realistic goals and opportunities for positioning B&H on the global AI scene.